While the situation between Russia and Georgia aggravates, the voices we hear about its developments are not comforting at all and make us think that something might be soon starting to happen.
According to the Russian military expert Pavel Felgengauer the chances that a new war conflict between the two countries over the control of the troublesome regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are less than 20%.
“Statements of Kokoiti about return of ostensibly Ossetian territory, demarcation of borders and reaction of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, maybe will lead to large-scaled military actions within the last few days. Probability of a new war is no less then 80%. Russian military officers know that August is the best time to begin war and September will be late” declared Felgengauer to Inter Press News.
And things do not look better from the declarations of Sergei Markov, State Duma deputy and director of the Institute of Political Studies. In a long note reported by the Russian agency RIA Novotel, Markov widely commented the relation between Russia and Georgia, stressing the role covered by international media.
“Now we are again going to witness information wars over the interpretation of the last August events, during which war, war criminal Saakashvili was being misrepresented, and Russian view was being ignored for two months running” he accused, pointing then his finger against the actions taken by US and NATO twelve months ago.
“Georgian troops were equipped with NATO weapons, and trained in line with NATO standards. However, the West does not want to admit its responsibility for its role in the conflict up to this day”
“I do not think he will last till the next presidential term” Markov said talking about the Georgian President Saakashvili. “He is likely to be overthrown. It appears that this will be done by force unless Americans act as mediators in the transfer of power from him to the opposition. In the mean time, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will continue consolidating their statehood, and developing their ties with Russia”, he concluded.
In the meantime, intelligence sources of Armed Forces of the Caucasus Emirate reported about a convoy of around 300 military vehicles formed by thanks and launch rocket systems which should be moving, right in these moments, in the Georgian direction.